1
Poetic Amy
5yo Mare · 8-10 · Draw 1 · OR 71
Fort Erie · Race 5 - Claiming · 6f 110y
#8
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 4.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-20 | Woodbine | ? | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-08-06 | Woodbine | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-07-30 | Woodbine | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-18 | Woodbine | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-31 | Woodbine | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-08 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 80% of fieldRange 4-8 · tight 64/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength32%
Delivery trend -4.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/11/2025 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 50% | +0.24 |
| 01/01/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 33% | +0.18 |
| 23/01/2026 | 8th | 40/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 08/05/2026 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 60% | -0.03 |
| 31/05/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 20% | -0.33 |
| 18/06/2026 | 6th | 4/1 | 79% | 17% | -0.62 |
| 30/07/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 20% | -0.06 |
| 06/08/2026 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 20/09/2026 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |