6
Shamra
7yo Mare · 8-10 · Draw 6 · OR 69
Fort Erie · Race 5 - Claiming · 6f 110y
#6
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.1 /10 (raw 4.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-28 | Fort Erie | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-09-15 | Fort Erie | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-27 | Fort Erie | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-09 | Woodbine | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-06-11 | Woodbine | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-05-15 | Woodbine | ? | 7th | 6th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 829% of fieldRange 4-7 · tight 72/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength36%
Delivery trend +0.8% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/10/2025 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 33% | -0.40 |
| 12/12/2025 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 50% | -0.24 |
| 25/04/2026 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 40% | -0.31 |
| 15/05/2026 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 11/06/2026 | 8th | 10/1 | 47% | 22% | -0.25 |
| 09/07/2026 | 8th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 27/07/2026 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 60% | -0.08 |
| 15/09/2026 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 80% | +0.09 |
| 28/09/2026 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 25% | -0.59 |