7
Fairhopecurly
5yo Mare · 8-5 · Draw 7 · OR 80
Fort Erie · Race 6 - Claiming · 5f
#7
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength27%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 4.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | Fort Erie | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-09-04 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-29 | Fort Erie | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-02-25 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-02-12 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-01-30 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 843% of fieldRange 1-7 · tight 45/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength82%
Delivery trend +9.1% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08/2025 | 8th | 15/2 | 61% | 36% | -0.24 |
| 04/10/2025 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 80% | +0.04 |
| 11/01/2026 | 7th | 5/2 | 87% | 0% | -0.87 |
| 30/01/2026 | 3rd | 25/1 | 0% | 71% | +0.71 |
| 12/02/2026 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 17% | -0.36 |
| 25/02/2026 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 17% | -0.31 |
| 29/06/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 71% | -0.08 |
| 04/09/2026 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 80% | +0.27 |
| 14/09/2026 | 2nd | 25/1 | 0% | 80% | +0.80 |