Gus's Gamble
7yo Gelding · 8-8 · Draw 2 · OR 75
Fort Erie · Race 6 - Claiming · 5f
#3
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.4 /10 (raw 4.7)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | Fort Erie | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-31 | Fort Erie | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-08-17 | Fort Erie | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-08-10 | Fort Erie | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-20 | Fort Erie | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-07-06 | Fort Erie | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -5.9% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/10/2025 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 21/10/2025 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 31/05/2026 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 60% | +0.44 |
| 06/07/2026 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 50% | -0.13 |
| 20/07/2026 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |
| 10/08/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 17/08/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 57% | +0.10 |
| 31/08/2026 | 8th | 8/1 | 58% | 0% | -0.58 |
| 15/09/2026 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |