4
Hardware Gap
7yo Gelding · 8-8 · Draw 4 · OR 73
Fort Erie · Race 6 - Claiming · 5f
#8
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.8 /10 (raw 5.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | Fort Erie | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-31 | Fort Erie | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-27 | Fort Erie | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2025-11-07 | Woodbine | ? | 14th | 14th | 0 |
| 2025-10-21 | Fort Erie | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2025-09-30 | Fort Erie | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 829% of fieldRange 1-6 · tight 55/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength62%
Delivery trend -5.9% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 6th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/08/2025 | 1st | 16/1 | 16% | 100% | +0.84 |
| 26/08/2025 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 50% | +0.13 |
| 08/09/2025 | 1st | 16/1 | 16% | 100% | +0.84 |
| 30/09/2025 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 75% | +0.28 |
| 21/10/2025 | 8th | 40/1 | 0% | 22% | +0.22 |
| 07/11/2025 | 14th | 50/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 27/07/2026 | 10th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 31/08/2026 | 4th | 33/1 | 0% | 57% | +0.57 |
| 15/09/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 86% | +0.12 |