Summer Snow

7yo Mare · 8-5 · Draw 1 · OR 68

Fort Erie · Race 6 - Claiming · 5f

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▼ OVER-MARKED

Move▬

Strength33%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.6 /10 (raw 4.0)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C7.2

Today:

Class gap: +0.3

Higher-class runs: 2

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-09-22	Fort Erie	?	5th	5th	0	5.0
2026-07-19	Woodbine	?	6th	6th	0	4.0
2026-07-06	Fort Erie	?	2nd	1st	+1	9.2
2026-05-09	Woodbine	?	7th	6th	+1	4.2
2026-05-02	Woodbine	?	1st	1st	0	9.0
2026-04-18	Woodbine	?	3rd	3rd	0	7.0

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish7th of 814% of fieldRange 4-8 · tight 64/100

▼ UNDER-DELIVERING

Trend▬

Strength3%

Delivery trend -1.1% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 8.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
31/08/2025	6th	13/2	66%	0%	-0.66
27/02/2026	6th	16/1	16%	0%	-0.16
25/03/2026	6th	11/2	71%	0%	-0.71
18/04/2026	3rd	10/11	95%	67%	-0.29
02/05/2026	1st	5/2	87%	100%	+0.13
09/05/2026	7th	13/2	66%	14%	-0.52
06/07/2026	2nd	11/2	71%	83%	+0.12
19/07/2026	6th	10/1	47%	0%	-0.47
22/09/2026	5th	11/10	94%	0%	-0.94