IvyArcIvyArc
3

Very Debonaire

7yo Gelding · 8-10 · Draw 3 · OR 80

Fort Erie · Race 6 - Claiming · 5f

#1

Rank

Odds

5/2

Win Prob

100%

Place Prob

92%

Rank

#1

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ AHEAD OF MARK
Move▼1
Strength72%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.9 /10 (raw 4.8)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.4
Today:
Class gap: +1.1
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Woodbine 03/10/2025 · Pos 5th of 14 · OR 78 · 7f 123 · below its mark03/10/2025 · OR 78 par3/10C8OR 78C8 @ Woodbine 23/10/2025 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR 74 · 6f Fas 123 · below its mark23/10/2025 · OR 74 parC8 @ Woodbine 20/11/2025 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 77 · 5f110y Fas 123 · below its mark20/11/2025 · OR 77 par20/11C8OR 77C8 @ Mahoning Valley 24/03/2026 · Pos 9th of 9 · OR 74 · 5f110y Gd 124 · below its mark24/03/2026 · OR 74 parC8 @ Mountaineer 13/04/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 73 · 6f Fas 120 · below its mark13/04/2026 · OR 73 par13/04C8OR 73C5 @ Fort Erie 21/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 62 · 5f Fm 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark21/06/2026 · OR 62 parC7 @ Fort Erie 17/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 65 · 5f Gd 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark17/08/2026 · OR 65 par17/08C7OR 65C5 @ Fort Erie 07/09/2026 · Pos 7th of 10 · OR 71 · 1m110y Fm 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark07/09/2026 · OR 71 parC8 @ Fort Erie 22/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 76 · 5f Fm 122 · beat its mark22/09/2026 · OR 76 par22/09C8OR 76projClass-projected finish: 1st of 8
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-22Fort Erie?1st1st0
2026-09-07Fort Erie?7th3rd+3
2026-08-17Fort Erie?1st0th+1
2026-06-21Fort Erie?1st-2th+3
2026-04-13Mountaineer?4th4th0
2026-03-24Mahoning Valley?9th9th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today3/1024/0317/0822/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 8100% of fieldRange 1-2 · tight 85/100
▲ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +8.0% per run

What the projection says

Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 8. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
03/10/20255th12/137%69%+0.32
23/10/20256th5/174%0%-0.74
20/11/20253rd10/147%67%+0.19
24/03/20269th10/147%0%-0.47
13/04/20264th16/116%57%+0.41
21/06/20261st10/147%100%+0.53
17/08/20261st16/116%100%+0.84
07/09/20267th25/10%33%+0.33
22/09/20261st11/486%100%+0.14