Alberta Rose

4yo Filly · 11-4

Galway · Tote Always SP Or Better At Galway Maiden Hurdle · 2m 130y

Rank

Odds

33/1

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

★ Timeform

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE

▬ NO MARK

Move▼4

Strength35%

What the class read says

Dropping in class from recent starts. Whether that's a positive depends on intent — worth checking the yard's record placing horses down in grade.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 7 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 6.0)

Highest class: 1

Recent avg: C4.4

Today:

Class gap: +3.6

Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-03-22	Limerick	1	5th	-4th	+7	5.0
2026-01-25	Naas	?	7th	7th	0	3.0

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish6th of 2074% of fieldRange 20-20 · tight 71/100

▬ OVER-DELIVERING

Trend▼

Strength0%

Delivery trend -49.0% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 6th of 20. Recent form is easing off.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
25/01/2026	7th	80/1	0%	45%	+0.45
22/03/2026	5th	12/1	37%	33%	-0.04