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10

Baila Conmigo

4yo Gelding · 11-11 · OR 112

Galway · Tote Always SP Or Better At Galway Maiden Hurdle · 2m 130y

#8

Rank

Odds

5/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#8

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Fair 3-time winner over middle distances at Dundalk and back on the up in this sphere when fourth in eventful maiden at Downpatrick (2¼m) 3 weeks ago, no extra in the final 1f (lost 2 places close home) after making most until then. Drop back in trip will suit and can go well.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ AHEAD OF MARK
Move▬
Strength68%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.1 /10 (raw 4.9)

Highest class: BHA56
Recent avg: C7.4
Today:
Class gap: +0.6
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA64 @ Bellewstown 11/04/2026 · Pos 12th of 12 · OR 64 · 1m3f90y Sft 134 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark11/04/2026 · OR 64 par11/0464OR 64BHA64 @ Leopardstown 15/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 64 · 1m1f Yie 153 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark15/04/2026 · OR 64 parBHA64 @ Listowel 31/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 11 · OR 64 · 2m40y Goo 133 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark31/05/2026 · OR 64 par31/0564OR 64BHA64 @ Dundalk 12/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 64 · 1m4f Std 137 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark12/07/2026 · OR 64 parBHA69 @ Galway 30/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 17 · OR 69 · 1m4f Yie 139 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark30/07/2026 · OR 69 par30/0769OR 69BHA69 @ Galway 31/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 18 · OR 69 · 1m6f14y Yie 139 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark31/07/2026 · OR 69 parC8 @ Kilbeggan 21/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 13 · OR - · 2m Goo 16321/08C8C8 @ Kilbeggan 03/09/2026 · Pos 4th of 11 · OR - · 2m Goo 164C8 @ Downpatrick 18/09/2026 · Pos 4th of 15 · OR - · 2m1f165y Gd 16418/09C8projClass-projected finish: 4th of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-18Downpatrick?4th4th0
2026-09-03Kilbeggan?4th4th0
2026-08-21Kilbeggan?4th4th0
2026-07-31GalwayBHA696th5th+1
2026-07-30GalwayBHA693rd2nd+1
2026-07-12DundalkBHA641st-1th+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today11/0412/0721/0818/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 2089% of fieldRange 1-5 · tight 81/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +4.2% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 20. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
11/04/202612th8/158%0%-0.58
15/04/20262nd9/276%86%+0.09
31/05/20265th16/116%60%+0.44
12/07/20261st8/158%100%+0.42
30/07/20263rd22/10%88%+0.88
31/07/20266th16/116%71%+0.55
21/08/20264th10/147%75%+0.28
03/09/20264th8/158%70%+0.12
18/09/20264th11/271%79%+0.08