1
Carrig Padraig
7yo Gelding · 11-12
Galway · Tote Always SP Or Better At Galway Maiden Hurdle · 2m 130y
#3
Rank
Odds
33/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#3
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARK
Move▬
Strength1%
What the class read says
Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today.
Class-adjusted form 8.6 /10 (raw 8.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-19 | Navan | ? | 13th | 13th | 0 |
| 2026-07-06 | Roscommon | ? | 0 | ||
| 2026-03-17 | Down Royal | ? | 18th | 18th | 0 |
| 2025-10-11 | Fairyhouse | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-09-21 | Listowel | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-08-22 | Kilbeggan | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 2084% of fieldRange 9-20 · tight 61/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength18%
Delivery trend -2.0% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 20. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/05/2024 | 11th | 50/1 | 0% | 23% | +0.23 |
| 02/06/2024 | 8th | 66/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 06/03/2025 | 10th | 200/1 | 0% | 47% | +0.47 |
| 17/03/2025 | 6th | 150/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 22/08/2025 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 44% | +0.18 |
| 21/09/2025 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 56% | +0.56 |
| 11/10/2025 | 1st | 12/1 | 37% | 100% | +0.63 |
| 17/03/2026 | 18th | 11/1 | 42% | 6% | -0.37 |
| 19/09/2026 | 13th | 22/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |