13
Direct Approach
4yo Gelding · 11-11 · OR 100
Galway · Tote Always SP Or Better At Galway Maiden Hurdle · 2m 130y
#2
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#2
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength17%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 6.5)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C8.2
Today:
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-28 | Roscommon | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-09-18 | Dundalk | BHA69 | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-08-26 | Bellewstown | BHA100 | 9th | 11th | −2 |
| 2026-08-04 | Roscommon | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-24 | Kilbeggan | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-14 | Downpatrick | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 20100% of fieldRange 1-9 · tight 70/100
▲ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength100%
Delivery trend -2.3% per run
What the projection says
Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 20. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/09/2025 | 9th | 50/1 | 0% | 53% | +0.53 |
| 20/09/2025 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 93% | +0.67 |
| 31/12/2025 | 9th | 20/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 14/07/2026 | 6th | 17/2 | 55% | 38% | -0.18 |
| 24/07/2026 | 3rd | 33/1 | 0% | 86% | +0.86 |
| 04/08/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 67% | +0.30 |
| 26/08/2026 | 9th | 12/1 | 37% | 43% | +0.06 |
| 18/09/2026 | 3rd | 33/1 | 0% | 78% | +0.78 |
| 28/09/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 92% | +0.13 |