IvyArcIvyArc
9

Young Rebel

5yo Gelding · 11-12

Galway · Tote Always SP Or Better At Galway Maiden Hurdle · 2m 130y

#1

Rank

Odds

8/15

Win Prob

100%

Place Prob

94%

Rank

#1

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Justified support on debut when producing a strong late surge to land a Fairyhouse bumper in November from a subsequent Grade 2 winner. Picked up by top owner out of the Margaret Mullins yard after and shaped well in 17f maiden hurdle here in August. Wants further but is sure to improve. Big shout.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARK
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 3.0)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC0 @ Fairyhouse 30/11/2025 · Pos 1st of 14 · OR - · 2m Yie 16430/11C?C8 @ Galway 01/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 19 · OR - · 2m175y Goo 1661/08C8projClass-projected finish: 1st of 9
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-01Galway?5th5th0
2025-11-30Fairyhouse?1st1st0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today30/111/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 2095% of fieldRange 14-14 · tight 71/100
▲ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength32%

Delivery trend -64.3% per run

What the projection says

Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 2nd of 20. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
30/11/20251st12/137%100%+0.63
01/08/20265th4/179%78%-0.01