Moonshine Girl
7yo Mare · 10-7 · OR 92
Galway · Guinness Mares Handicap Hurdle · 2m 6f 60y
#4
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Class-adjusted form 4.4 /10 (raw 6.8)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-25 | Listowel | BHA92 | 0 | ||
| 2026-09-07 | Galway | BHA80 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-28 | Down Royal | BHA80 | 13th | 13th | 0 |
| 2026-08-10 | Ballinrobe | BHA80 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-06 | Roscommon | BHA77 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-28 | Limerick | BHA75 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -1.1% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/10/2025 | 3rd | 13/2 | 66% | 82% | +0.16 |
| 21/11/2025 | 8th | 16/1 | 16% | 13% | -0.03 |
| 02/05/2026 | 11th | 50/1 | 0% | 52% | +0.52 |
| 10/05/2026 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 70% | +0.44 |
| 28/05/2026 | 2nd | 8/1 | 58% | 92% | +0.34 |
| 06/07/2026 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 93% | +0.41 |
| 10/08/2026 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 80% | +0.04 |
| 28/08/2026 | 13th | 10/1 | 47% | 14% | -0.33 |
| 07/09/2026 | 1st | 9/1 | 53% | 100% | +0.47 |