2
Tir Og
5yo Mare · 11-9 · OR 108
Galway · Guinness Mares Handicap Hurdle · 2m 6f 60y
#5
Rank
Odds
9/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#5
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 7.3 /10 (raw 6.7)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C8.9
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | Kilbeggan | BHA109 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-06-14 | Downpatrick | BHA110 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-30 | Listowel | BHA113 | 12th | 12th | 0 |
| 2026-05-09 | Killarney | 1 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-04-05 | Fairyhouse | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-03-17 | Wexford | BHA117 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 733% of fieldRange 1-4 · tight 68/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength77%
Delivery trend +1.2% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/11/2025 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 29/12/2025 | 5th | 7/1 | 63% | 64% | +0.00 |
| 01/02/2026 | 17th | 25/1 | 0% | 6% | +0.06 |
| 17/03/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 71% | -0.05 |
| 05/04/2026 | 8th | 28/1 | 0% | 63% | +0.63 |
| 09/05/2026 | 7th | 40/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 30/05/2026 | 12th | 40/1 | 0% | 8% | +0.08 |
| 14/06/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 73% | +0.46 |
| 03/09/2026 | 10th | 9/1 | 53% | 40% | -0.13 |