1
Captain Ryan Matt
6yo Gelding · 11-12
Galway · BOYLE Sports Shop At Galway Racecourse Beginners Chase · 2m 2f 54y
#3
Rank
Odds
9/4
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#3
★★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 3.3)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C8.1
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-10 | Aintree | 2 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-01-01 | Tramore | BHA116 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-11-23 | Punchestown | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-10-15 | Punchestown | BHA117 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-09-24 | Listowel | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-08-15 | Tramore | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 871% of fieldRange 1-6 · tight 55/100
▲ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength99%
Delivery trend -0.4% per run
What the projection says
Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 3rd of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/01/2025 | 5th | 17/2 | 55% | 71% | +0.16 |
| 27/01/2025 | 2nd | 25/1 | 0% | 93% | +0.93 |
| 08/03/2025 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 95% | +0.11 |
| 15/08/2025 | 1st | 8/13 | 97% | 100% | +0.03 |
| 24/09/2025 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 0% | -0.76 |
| 15/10/2025 | 6th | 7/1 | 63% | 55% | -0.09 |
| 23/11/2025 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 75% | +0.04 |
| 01/01/2026 | 1st | 13/8 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 10/04/2026 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 80% | +0.80 |