2
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7yo Gelding · 11-12
Galway · BOYLE Sports Shop At Galway Racecourse Beginners Chase · 2m 2f 54y
#2
Rank
Odds
9/4
Win Prob
45%
Place Prob
47%
Rank
#2
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 7.3 /10 (raw 4.2)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C1.3
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-11 | Aintree | 1 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-03-11 | Cheltenham | 1 | 17th | 17th | 0 |
| 2026-02-14 | Haydock | 2 | 0 | ||
| 2025-10-25 | Cheltenham | 2 | 0 | ||
| 2025-08-02 | Galway | 1 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-05-01 | Punchestown | 1 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 8100% of fieldRange 1-1 · tight 90/100
▲ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +9.4% per run
What the projection says
Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/07/2024 | 3rd | 6/5 | 94% | 78% | -0.16 |
| 26/08/2024 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 23/01/2025 | 1st | 1/1 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 01/03/2025 | 2nd | 5/4 | 93% | 88% | -0.06 |
| 12/04/2025 | 2nd | 4/11 | 98% | 50% | -0.48 |
| 01/05/2025 | 6th | 15/2 | 61% | 77% | +0.17 |
| 02/08/2025 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 89% | +0.31 |
| 11/03/2026 | 17th | 33/1 | 0% | 30% | +0.30 |
| 11/04/2026 | 3rd | 25/1 | 0% | 90% | +0.90 |