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2

Fizzle Rock

9yo Mare · 11-11 · OR 95

Galway · Ryans Cleaning Handicap Chase (0-100) · 2m 2f 54y

#1

Rank

Odds

16/1

Win Prob

40%

Place Prob

37%

Rank

#1

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Fair winning hurdler who has gone with no encouragement in 3 starts over fences. Goes handicapping with lots to prove.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 4.6 /10 (raw 4.3)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C4.1
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Perth 28/07/2021 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR - · 2m47y Goo 15028/074C8 @ Tipperary 04/05/2023 · Pos 11th of 19 · OR - · 1m7f170y Goo 161C8 @ Bellewstown 08/07/2023 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR - · 2m4f Goo 1618/07C8C8 @ Sligo 10/08/2023 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR - · 2m4f80y Yie 159BHA107 @ Listowel 17/09/2023 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR 107 · 2m4f Goo 166 · below its mark17/09/2023 · OR 107 par17/09107OR 1074 @ Carlisle 19/10/2023 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR 109 · 2m1f33y Hvy 154 · below its mark19/10/2023 · OR 109 par1 @ Down Royal 10/11/2023 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 109 · 2m190y Sft 144 · beat its mark10/11/2023 · OR 109 par10/111OR 1091 @ Punchestown 26/11/2023 · Pos 4th of 4 · OR - · 2m43y Sft 151C0 @ Downpatrick 18/09/2026 · Pos 9th of 12 · OR - · 2m1f165y Gd 15918/09C?projClass-projected finish: 9th of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-18Downpatrick?9th9th0
2026-09-04Kilbeggan?0
2023-11-26Punchestown14th4th0
2023-11-10Down Royal14th4th0
2023-10-19Carlisle43rd3rd0
2023-09-17ListowelBHA1073rd3rd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today28/0710/0810/1118/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1078% of fieldRange 3-10 · tight 50/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength31%

Delivery trend +0.3% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 10.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
28/07/20214th2/189%57%-0.32
04/05/202311th66/10%44%+0.44
08/07/20234th33/10%63%+0.63
10/08/20231st11/142%100%+0.58
17/09/20233rd14/126%80%+0.54
19/10/20233rd7/282%80%-0.02
10/11/20234th66/10%50%+0.50
26/11/20234th150/10%0%0.00
18/09/20269th33/10%27%+0.27