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10

Ballagh Star

8yo Gelding · 10-8 · OR 84

Galway · Mongey Communications Handicap Chase · 2m 6f 111y

#3

Rank

Odds

6/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#3

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Gambled on in new headgear and shaped as if back to form bidding to win 3¼m Sligo handicap chase for a third time last week, inconvenienced by marathon run-in that day due to low sun and much better than the bare result. 2 lb lower here and clearly of interest.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 8.3 /10 (raw 6.2)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.7
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA90 @ Roscommon 09/06/2025 · Pos 4th of 14 · OR 90 · 3m1f24y Goo 162 · below its mark09/06/2025 · OR 90 par9/0690OR 90BHA89 @ Tipperary 01/07/2025 · Pos 7th of 13 · OR 89 · 2m7f35y Yie 145 · below its mark01/07/2025 · OR 89 parBHA86 @ Tramore 15/08/2025 · Pos 9th of 14 · OR 86 · 2m5f180y Gd 154 · below its mark15/08/2025 · OR 86 par15/0886OR 86BHA83 @ Kilbeggan 22/08/2025 · Pos 3rd of 13 · OR 83 · 3m1f180y Goo 158 · below its mark22/08/2025 · OR 83 parBHA84 @ Ballinrobe 12/09/2025 · Pos 2nd of 13 · OR 84 · 2m7f6y Sft 152 · below its mark12/09/2025 · OR 84 par12/0984OR 84BHA87 @ Sligo 01/10/2025 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 87 · 3m1f182y Yie 155 · beat its mark01/10/2025 · OR 87 parBHA83 @ Punchestown 13/05/2026 · Pos 12th of 18 · OR 83 · 3m Goo 151 · below its mark13/05/2026 · OR 83 par13/0583OR 83BHA82 @ Sligo 12/07/2026 · Pos 9th of 15 · OR 82 · 3m1f121y Gd 140 · below its mark12/07/2026 · OR 82 parBHA86 @ Sligo 30/09/2026 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR 86 · 3m1f182y Gd 154 · below its mark30/09/2026 · OR 86 par30/0986OR 86projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 8
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-30SligoBHA864th4th0
2026-08-04RoscommonBHA880
2026-07-12SligoBHA829th9th0
2026-06-08RoscommonBHA900
2026-05-13PunchestownBHA8312th12th0
2025-11-04FairyhouseBHA910

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today9/0622/0813/0530/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 886% of fieldRange 1-5 · tight 64/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength71%

Delivery trend -4.2% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 8. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
09/06/20254th22/10%77%+0.77
01/07/20257th10/147%50%+0.03
15/08/20259th16/116%38%+0.23
22/08/20253rd8/158%83%+0.25
12/09/20252nd5/174%92%+0.18
01/10/20251st3/184%100%+0.16
13/05/202612th40/10%35%+0.35
12/07/20269th14/126%43%+0.17
30/09/20264th5/174%73%-0.01