4
Juke Hill
6yo Gelding · 11-10 · OR 100
Galway · Mongey Communications Handicap Chase · 2m 6f 111y
#7
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 5.8 /10 (raw 5.2)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C8.8
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-24 | Perth | 4 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-09-07 | Galway | BHA104 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-13 | Tramore | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-30 | Wexford | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-07 | Punchestown | BHA103 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-01-29 | Thurles | BHA104 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 829% of fieldRange 1-8 · tight 32/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength58%
Delivery trend -8.6% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 6th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/10/2025 | 2nd | 18/1 | 5% | 83% | +0.78 |
| 13/12/2025 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 60% | +0.44 |
| 15/01/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 73% | +0.73 |
| 29/01/2026 | 7th | 4/1 | 79% | 33% | -0.46 |
| 07/06/2026 | 8th | 9/1 | 53% | 42% | -0.11 |
| 30/06/2026 | 4th | 33/1 | 0% | 77% | +0.77 |
| 13/08/2026 | 7th | 11/2 | 71% | 25% | -0.46 |
| 07/09/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 70% | +0.54 |
| 24/09/2026 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 50% | -0.29 |