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3

Survivors Sister

7yo Mare · 11-12 · OR 102

Galway · Mongey Communications Handicap Chase · 2m 6f 111y

#4

Rank

Odds

20/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#4

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Fair handicap hurdler who got off the mark at Limerick (21f, heavy) in February. Has become increasingly unreliable, though, and made an underwhelming chasing debut after 4 months off at Ballinrobe. Switched to a handicap now.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength2%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 5.8 /10 (raw 6.0)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C10.2
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC0 @ Galway 08/09/2025 · Pos 8th of 17 · OR - · 2m160y Goo 1658/09C?C8 @ Ballinrobe 12/09/2025 · Pos 11th of 14 · OR - · 2m1f215y Sft 153C8 @ Listowel 26/09/2025 · Pos 4th of 11 · OR - · 2m2f Goo 15926/09C8C8 @ Galway 07/10/2025 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR - · 2m130y Yie 159BHA94 @ Limerick 10/02/2026 · Pos 1st of 14 · OR 94 · 2m5f Hvy 162 · beat its mark10/02/2026 · OR 94 par10/0294OR 94BHA105 @ Kilbeggan 24/04/2026 · Pos 8th of 14 · OR 105 · 2m110y Goo 161 · below its mark24/04/2026 · OR 105 parBHA104 @ Sligo 12/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR 104 · 3m1f172y Goo 160 · below its mark12/05/2026 · OR 104 par12/05104OR 104BHA103 @ Ballinrobe 26/05/2026 · Pos 9th of 15 · OR 103 · 2m6f28y Goo 162 · below its mark26/05/2026 · OR 103 parBHA102 @ Ballinrobe 11/09/2026 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR 102 · 2m7f67y Yie 161 · below its mark11/09/2026 · OR 102 par11/09102OR 102projClass-projected finish: 6th of 8
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-11BallinrobeBHA1028th8th0
2026-05-26BallinrobeBHA1039th9th0
2026-05-12SligoBHA1043rd3rd0
2026-04-24KilbegganBHA1058th8th0
2026-02-21FairyhouseBHA1050
2026-02-10LimerickBHA941st1st0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today8/097/1012/0511/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 871% of fieldRange 3-8 · tight 55/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength36%

Delivery trend -3.1% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 8. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
08/09/20258th100/10%56%+0.56
12/09/202511th125/10%23%+0.23
26/09/20254th100/10%70%+0.70
07/10/20252nd16/116%75%+0.59
10/02/20261st25/10%100%+1.00
24/04/20268th22/10%46%+0.46
12/05/20263rd25/10%82%+0.82
26/05/20269th14/126%43%+0.17
11/09/20268th40/10%13%+0.13