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2

Rocky Alfonso

4yo Gelding · 11-10

Galway · Race In Pink On October 25th Flat Race · 2m 130y

#4

Rank

Odds

6/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

2%

Rank

#4

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Camacho gelding who proved easy to back but showed ability when fourth of 13 in bumper at Roscommon on debut in early August, the emphasis on speed suiting. Fared best of those held up at Navan (1m) subsequently and should make presence felt again.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARK
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 4.5)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C0.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC0 @ Roscommon 04/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 13 · OR - · 1m7f110y Yie 1644/08C?C0 @ Navan 19/09/2026 · Pos 5th of 13 · OR - · 1m7f165y Gd 16419/09C?projClass-projected finish: 1st of 1
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-19Navan?5th5th0
2026-08-04Roscommon?4th4th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today4/0819/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 843% of fieldRange 8-8 · tight 71/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength0%

Delivery trend -63.6% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 8. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
04/08/20264th16/116%75%+0.59
19/09/20265th11/271%67%-0.04