La Misteriosa

2yo Filly · 8-8 · Draw 8 · OR 46

Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 1 - Maiden Claiming · 1m

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▲ AHEAD OF MARK

Move▼3

Strength78%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 8.5)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C6.0

Today:

Class gap: +2.5

Higher-class runs: 2

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-09-07	Kentucky Downs	?	9th	6th	+3	4.0
2026-06-13	Churchill Downs	?	8th	5th	+3	5.0

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish2nd of 886% of fieldRange 3-3 · tight 71/100

▬ OVER-DELIVERING

Trend▲

Strength77%

Delivery trend +20.0% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 8. Recent form is on the up.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
13/06/2026	8th	50/1	0%	0%	0.00
07/09/2026	9th	50/1	0%	20%	+0.20