IvyArcIvyArc
5

Tapit Charm

4yo Filly · 8-12 · Draw 5 · OR 41

Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 2 - Maiden Claiming · 5f 110y

#4

Rank

Odds

5/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

2%

Rank

#4

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▼1
Strength79%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 6.2)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.7
Today:
Class gap: +0.8
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 12/11/2025 · Pos 9th of 11 · OR 36 · 6f 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark12/11/2025 · OR 36 par12/11C6OR 36C9 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 06/05/2026 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR 35 · 6f 124 · below its mark06/05/2026 · OR 35 parC6 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 20/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR 32 · 1m 124 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark20/05/2026 · OR 32 par20/05C6OR 32C6 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 10/06/2026 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR 33 · 1m110y Slo 124 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark10/06/2026 · OR 33 parC9 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 04/07/2026 · Pos 7th of 11 · OR 26 · 5f110y 124 · beat its mark04/07/2026 · OR 26 par4/07C9OR 26C9 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 28/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR 28 · 6f Fas 124 · beat its mark28/07/2026 · OR 28 parC9 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 24/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 34 · 6f 121 · beat its mark24/08/2026 · OR 34 par24/08C9OR 34C9 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 08/09/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 38 · 6f 124 · beat its mark08/09/2026 · OR 38 parC6 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 17/09/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 45 · 5f110y 124 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark17/09/2026 · OR 45 par17/09C6OR 45projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 5
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-17Horseshoe Indianapolis?4th1st+3
2026-09-08Horseshoe Indianapolis?4th4th0
2026-08-24Horseshoe Indianapolis?4th4th0
2026-07-28Horseshoe Indianapolis?3rd3rd0
2026-07-04Horseshoe Indianapolis?7th7th0
2026-06-10Horseshoe Indianapolis?7th4th+3

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today12/1110/0624/0817/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 750% of fieldRange 1-3 · tight 76/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +4.2% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 7. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
12/11/20259th50/10%20%+0.20
06/05/20267th14/126%0%-0.26
20/05/20266th25/10%0%0.00
10/06/20267th50/10%25%+0.25
04/07/20267th50/10%40%+0.40
28/07/20263rd33/10%80%+0.80
24/08/20264th16/116%50%+0.34
08/09/20264th10/382%50%-0.32
17/09/20264th33/10%57%+0.57