Estrella Brillante
4yo Filly · 8-9 · Draw 4 · OR 73
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 3 - Claiming · 6f
#2
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
4%
Place Prob
13%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 4 of 5 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 1.0 /10 (raw 3.9)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-27 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 4th | 1st | +3 |
| 2026-08-13 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 4th | 1st | +3 |
| 2026-07-29 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 4th | 1st | +3 |
| 2026-07-10 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
| 2026-06-06 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 3rd | 0th | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +7.3% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/10/2025 | 9th | 9/1 | 53% | 0% | -0.53 |
| 07/04/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 60% | -0.16 |
| 01/05/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 50% | -0.29 |
| 06/06/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 71% | -0.02 |
| 10/07/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 56% | +0.40 |
| 29/07/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 63% | +0.15 |
| 13/08/2026 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 40% | -0.31 |
| 27/08/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 57% | +0.31 |
| 09/09/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |