Astronova

3yo Filly · 8-8 · Draw 4 · OR 64

Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 4 - Maiden Claiming · 1m

Rank

Odds

5/1

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▼ OVER-MARKED

Move▼1

Strength55%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 6.0)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C7.3

Today:

Class gap: +1.3

Higher-class runs: 2

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-09-18	Churchill Downs	?	9th	9th	0	1.0
2026-06-21	Churchill Downs	?	5th	5th	0	5.0
2025-09-23	Horseshoe Indianapolis	?	5th	2nd	+3	8.0
2025-08-28	Horseshoe Indianapolis	?	5th	2nd	+3	8.0

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish5th of 1160% of fieldRange 1-6 · tight 60/100

▬ OVER-DELIVERING

Trend▲

Strength94%

Delivery trend +3.3% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 11. Recent form is on the up.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
28/08/2025	5th	7/1	63%	50%	-0.13
23/09/2025	5th	25/1	0%	33%	+0.33
21/06/2026	5th	16/1	16%	43%	+0.27
18/09/2026	9th	33/1	0%	0%	0.00