Donna Strada

3yo Filly · 8-8 · Draw 7 · OR 64

Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 4 - Maiden Claiming · 1m

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL

▼ OVER-MARKED

Move▼1

Strength10%

What the class read says

Dropping in class from recent starts. Whether that's a positive depends on intent — worth checking the yard's record placing horses down in grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.3 /10 (raw 6.3)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C7.7

Today:

Class gap: +0.8

Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-09-25	Churchill Downs	?	10th	10th	0	1.0
2026-08-11	Presque Isle Downs	?	3rd	0th	+3	5.0
2026-05-24	Churchill Downs	?	6th	6th	0	4.0

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish8th of 1130% of fieldRange 2-11 · tight 33/100

▬ OVER-DELIVERING

Trend▼

Strength43%

Delivery trend -13.1% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 8th of 11. Recent form is easing off.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
24/05/2026	6th	40/1	0%	44%	+0.44
11/08/2026	3rd	10/1	47%	50%	+0.03
25/09/2026	10th	25/1	0%	18%	+0.18