Sharp Mindset

3yo Filly · 8-8 · Draw 2 · OR 73

Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 4 - Maiden Claiming · 1m

Rank

Odds

5/1

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▼ OVER-MARKED

Move▼2

Strength76%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.2 /10 (raw 8.0)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C6.2

Today:

Class gap: +2.3

Higher-class runs: 3

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-01-15	Fair Grounds	?	11th	9th	+2	1.4
2025-11-26	Churchill Downs	?	8th	5th	+3	5.0
2025-07-30	Saratoga	?	5th	2nd	+3	8.0

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish9th of 1120% of fieldRange 11-11 · tight 77/100

▼ UNDER-DELIVERING

Trend▼

Strength0%

Delivery trend -27.0% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 9th of 11. Recent form is easing off.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
30/07/2025	5th	5/1	74%	50%	-0.24
26/11/2025	8th	11/8	93%	36%	-0.56
15/01/2026	11th	5/2	87%	9%	-0.78