13
Tectonic
4yo Filly · 8-12 · Draw 13 · OR 61
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 4 - Maiden Claiming · 1m
#11
Rank
Odds
25/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#11
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▼1
Strength57%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 3 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.3 /10 (raw 7.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: +1.3
Higher-class runs: 3
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-24 | Ellis Park | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2025-08-07 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 7th | 4th | +3 |
| 2025-06-12 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-03-02 | Turfway Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-01-19 | Turfway Park | ? | 11th | 8th | +3 |
| 2024-09-26 | Churchill Downs | ? | 9th | 6th | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1110% of fieldRange 4-11 · tight 52/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength29%
Delivery trend +1.8% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 10th of 11.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/09/2024 | 9th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 19/01/2025 | 11th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 02/03/2025 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 63% | +0.63 |
| 12/06/2025 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 07/08/2025 | 7th | 66/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 24/08/2025 | 10th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |