Dauwe
4yo Gelding · 8-7 · Draw 9 · OR 80
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 5 - Claiming · 6f
#1
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
98%
Place Prob
81%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.0 /10 (raw 3.6)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-07-30 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-24 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
| 2026-06-02 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 1st | -2th | +3 |
| 2025-11-12 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 3rd | 0th | +3 |
| 2025-10-23 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -2.3% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/08/2025 | 9th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 25/09/2025 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |
| 02/10/2025 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 25% | -0.01 |
| 23/10/2025 | 2nd | 15/2 | 61% | 91% | +0.30 |
| 12/11/2025 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 80% | +0.04 |
| 02/06/2026 | 1st | 16/1 | 16% | 100% | +0.84 |
| 24/06/2026 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 20% | -0.48 |
| 30/07/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 86% | -0.01 |
| 14/09/2026 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |