Good Civilian
3yo Gelding · 8-3 · Draw 3 · OR 75
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 5 - Claiming · 6f
#8
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.9 /10 (raw 5.7)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-26 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-07-27 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 8th | 5th | +3 |
| 2026-07-07 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-25 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 8th | 5th | +3 |
| 2026-05-01 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 4th | 0th | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -1.7% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 8th of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/06/2025 | 1st | 14/1 | 26% | 100% | +0.74 |
| 01/05/2026 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 25/05/2026 | 8th | 5/2 | 87% | 0% | -0.87 |
| 07/07/2026 | 6th | 7/4 | 91% | 29% | -0.62 |
| 27/07/2026 | 8th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 26/08/2026 | 10th | 40/1 | 0% | 10% | +0.10 |
| 10/09/2026 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 71% | +0.56 |