4
Reflex
5yo Gelding · 8-7 · Draw 4 · OR 75
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 5 - Claiming · 6f
#3
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength33%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 4.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-04 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-26 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-01 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-14 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-10-09 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-09-29 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 938% of fieldRange 6-9 · tight 74/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -5.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/07/2025 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 20% | +0.04 |
| 14/08/2025 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 05/09/2025 | 6th | 11/8 | 93% | 17% | -0.76 |
| 29/09/2025 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 09/10/2025 | 5th | 15/2 | 61% | 43% | -0.18 |
| 14/04/2026 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 57% | -0.27 |
| 01/05/2026 | 2nd | 2/1 | 89% | 83% | -0.06 |
| 26/05/2026 | 4th | 15/8 | 90% | 50% | -0.40 |
| 04/07/2026 | 5th | 11/4 | 86% | 20% | -0.66 |