The Exodus Twist
4yo Gelding · 8-10 · Draw 10 · OR 72
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 5 - Claiming · 6f
#5
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 2 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 4.9)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-24 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-09-02 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-30 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-07-04 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-21 | Charles Town | ? | 2nd | -1th | +3 |
| 2026-06-06 | Charles Town | ? | 3rd | 0th | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -0.2% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/02/2026 | 5th | 7/1 | 63% | 43% | -0.20 |
| 14/04/2026 | 2nd | 5/4 | 93% | 75% | -0.18 |
| 07/05/2026 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 06/06/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 67% | -0.12 |
| 21/06/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 83% | +0.10 |
| 04/07/2026 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 29% | +0.02 |
| 30/07/2026 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 14% | -0.23 |
| 02/09/2026 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 86% | +0.20 |
| 24/09/2026 | 5th | 10/3 | 82% | 43% | -0.40 |