5
Trust The Word
3yo Colt · 8-3 · Draw 5 · OR 80
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 5 - Claiming · 6f
#2
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
12%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength31%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.1 /10 (raw 3.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-24 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-09-10 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-27 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-08-20 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-16 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-04 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 9100% of fieldRange 1-8 · tight 43/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength75%
Delivery trend +2.9% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/04/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 43% | +0.27 |
| 06/05/2026 | 9th | 3/1 | 84% | 0% | -0.84 |
| 02/06/2026 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 57% | -0.19 |
| 04/07/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 80% | -0.07 |
| 16/07/2026 | 1st | 9/1 | 53% | 100% | +0.47 |
| 20/08/2026 | 2nd | 25/1 | 0% | 88% | +0.88 |
| 27/08/2026 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 67% | +0.04 |
| 10/09/2026 | 4th | 1/1 | 95% | 57% | -0.38 |
| 24/09/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 86% | +0.02 |