Elevated Game

5yo Gelding · 8-10 · Draw 3 · OR 96

Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 6 - Claiming · 1m 110y

Rank

Odds

7/2

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▼ OVER-MARKED

Move▬

Strength40%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 4.2)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C7.0

Today:

Class gap: +0.5

Higher-class runs: 3

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-09-10	Horseshoe Indianapolis	?	3rd	2nd	+1	8.2
2026-08-22	Horseshoe Indianapolis	?	2nd	1st	+1	9.2
2026-08-05	Horseshoe Indianapolis	?	7th	6th	+1	4.2
2026-06-16	Horseshoe Indianapolis	?	5th	5th	0	5.0
2025-10-16	Horseshoe Indianapolis	?	7th	7th	0	3.0
2025-09-25	Horseshoe Indianapolis	?	8th	8th	0	2.0

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish2nd of 1492% of fieldRange 1-13 · tight 34/100

▬ RUNS TO FORM

Trend▬

Strength68%

Delivery trend -0.2% per run

What the projection says

Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 2nd of 14.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
02/07/2025	3rd	12/1	37%	75%	+0.38
18/08/2025	1st	9/4	88%	100%	+0.12
04/09/2025	2nd	15/8	90%	88%	-0.03
25/09/2025	8th	5/1	74%	0%	-0.74
16/10/2025	7th	7/2	82%	0%	-0.82
16/06/2026	5th	3/1	84%	50%	-0.34
05/08/2026	7th	7/2	82%	45%	-0.36
22/08/2026	2nd	12/1	37%	89%	+0.52
10/09/2026	3rd	7/1	63%	75%	+0.12