New Year Surprise

8yo Horse · 8-10 · Draw 11 · OR 60

Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 6 - Claiming · 1m 110y

#13

Rank

Odds

30/1

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

#13

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL

▼ OVER-MARKED

Move▬

Strength10%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 4.3)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C7.3

Today:

Class gap: +0.2

Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-06-28	Hawthorne	?	4th	4th	0	6.0
2026-06-11	Hawthorne	?	6th	6th	0	4.0
2026-06-04	Hawthorne	?	3rd	3rd	0	7.0
2026-05-07	Hawthorne	?	6th	5th	+1	5.2
2026-04-19	Hawthorne	?	6th	6th	0	4.0
2026-04-02	Oaklawn Park	?	9th	9th	0	1.0

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish14th of 140% of fieldRange 10-14 · tight 76/100

▬ OVER-DELIVERING

Trend▼

Strength0%

Delivery trend -4.4% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 14th of 14. Recent form is easing off.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
19/10/2025	3rd	12/1	37%	75%	+0.38
30/10/2025	3rd	16/1	16%	75%	+0.59
18/11/2025	2nd	11/10	94%	83%	-0.11
02/04/2026	9th	25/1	0%	11%	+0.11
19/04/2026	6th	9/2	76%	0%	-0.76
07/05/2026	6th	25/1	0%	29%	+0.29
04/06/2026	3rd	12/1	37%	50%	+0.13
11/06/2026	6th	20/1	0%	0%	0.00
28/06/2026	4th	20/1	0%	0%	0.00