10
Scoville
4yo Gelding · 8-10 · Draw 10 · OR 69
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 6 - Claiming · 1m 110y
#12
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#12
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength5%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 5.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.2
Today:
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-21 | Turfway Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-03-06 | Turfway Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-02-22 | Turfway Park | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-01-17 | Turfway Park | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-01-03 | Turfway Park | ? | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2025-10-22 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 8th | 9th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1462% of fieldRange 1-6 · tight 73/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength91%
Delivery trend -0.4% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 6th of 14.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/01/2025 | 8th | 50/1 | 0% | 36% | +0.36 |
| 15/02/2025 | 8th | 40/1 | 0% | 22% | +0.22 |
| 08/03/2025 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 22/10/2025 | 8th | 20/1 | 0% | 36% | +0.36 |
| 03/01/2026 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 45% | +0.45 |
| 17/01/2026 | 2nd | 40/1 | 0% | 91% | +0.91 |
| 22/02/2026 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |
| 06/03/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 43% | +0.17 |
| 21/03/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |