4
A Long Winters Nap
4yo Filly · 8-10 · Draw 4 · OR 67
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 7 - Allowance · 1m
#8
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARK
Move▲2
Strength16%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.8
Today:
Class gap: -1.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 3rd | 6th | −3 |
| 2026-08-18 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 2nd | 5th | −3 |
| 2026-07-10 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-25 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-01-10 | Turfway Park | ? | 3rd | 7th | −4 |
| 2025-10-29 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 913% of fieldRange 5-9 · tight 67/100
▬ EDGING AHEAD
Trend▼
Strength16%
Delivery trend -4.8% per run
What the projection says
Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 8th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/06/2025 | 9th | 40/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |
| 17/07/2025 | 9th | 33/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |
| 16/10/2025 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 83% | +0.46 |
| 29/10/2025 | 2nd | 20/1 | 0% | 90% | +0.90 |
| 10/01/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 82% | +0.06 |
| 25/06/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 10/07/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 33% | -0.04 |
| 18/08/2026 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 88% | +0.22 |
| 10/09/2026 | 3rd | 6/4 | 92% | 67% | -0.25 |