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10

Dreaming Bonita

3yo Filly · 8-6 · Draw 10 · OR 68

Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 7 - Allowance · 1m

#4

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

4%

Rank

#4

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARK
Move▲2
Strength20%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 3.1)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.8
Today:
Class gap: -1.8
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 18/09/2025 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 54 · 5f110y 120 · beat its mark18/09/2025 · OR 54 par18/09C6OR 54C6 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 30/10/2025 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 57 · 5f110y 120 · beat its mark30/10/2025 · OR 57 parC6 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 05/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 74 · 6f Slo 121 · below its mark05/05/2026 · OR 74 par5/05C6OR 74C6 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 26/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 58 · 1m 121 · beat its mark26/05/2026 · OR 58 parC6 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 11/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 57 · 1m110y Fm 120 · beat its mark11/06/2026 · OR 57 par11/06C6OR 57C6 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 11/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR 59 · 1m110y Fm 120 · beat its mark11/07/2026 · OR 59 parC9 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 18/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 64 · 1m70y 120 · beat its mark18/08/2026 · OR 64 par18/08C9OR 64C6 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 11/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 65 · 6f 120 · beat its mark11/09/2026 · OR 65 parC9 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 24/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 65 · 1m Fas 120 · beat its mark24/09/2026 · OR 65 par24/09C9OR 65projClass-projected finish: 7th of 8
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-24Horseshoe Indianapolis?1st5th−4
2026-09-11Horseshoe Indianapolis?3rd4th−1
2026-08-18Horseshoe Indianapolis?2nd6th−4
2026-07-11Horseshoe Indianapolis?6th7th−1
2026-06-11Horseshoe Indianapolis?5th6th−1
2026-05-26Horseshoe Indianapolis?3rd4th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today18/0926/0518/0824/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 857% of fieldRange 4-5 · tight 85/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength49%

Delivery trend +2.5% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 8. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
18/09/20252nd9/488%86%-0.02
30/10/20254th5/287%63%-0.24
05/05/20265th10/147%43%-0.05
26/05/20263rd7/163%71%+0.08
11/06/20265th9/153%50%-0.03
11/07/20266th12/137%44%+0.08
18/08/20262nd9/488%86%-0.02
11/09/20263rd9/153%67%+0.14
24/09/20261st1/195%100%+0.05