7
Rumors Are Flying
4yo Filly · 8-10 · Draw 7 · OR 69
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 7 - Allowance · 1m
#5
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲2
Strength17%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 5.3 /10 (raw 3.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.7
Today:
Class gap: -1.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 2nd | 5th | −3 |
| 2026-08-18 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 1st | 5th | −4 |
| 2026-07-07 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-06-04 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2025-10-16 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2025-09-25 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 871% of fieldRange 3-5 · tight 75/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength62%
Delivery trend +6.9% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/09/2025 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 40% | -0.31 |
| 16/10/2025 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 67% | +0.04 |
| 04/06/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 60% | +0.07 |
| 07/07/2026 | 5th | 7/1 | 63% | 64% | +0.00 |
| 18/08/2026 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 10/09/2026 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 83% | +0.15 |