3
Theoretically
4yo Filly · 8-10 · Draw 3 · OR 72
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 7 - Allowance · 1m
#3
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
10%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▲2
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 7.2 /10 (raw 4.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.1
Today:
Class gap: -2.1
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-08-18 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 1st | 4th | −3 |
| 2026-08-04 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 4th | 7th | −3 |
| 2026-07-09 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 2nd | 5th | −3 |
| 2026-06-26 | Churchill Downs | ? | 8th | 11th | −3 |
| 2026-05-10 | Churchill Downs | ? | 7th | 10th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 963% of fieldRange 2-9 · tight 43/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength33%
Delivery trend +1.7% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/09/2025 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 25% | -0.46 |
| 15/10/2025 | 2nd | 8/1 | 58% | 86% | +0.28 |
| 21/04/2026 | 8th | 5/1 | 74% | 0% | -0.74 |
| 10/05/2026 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 26/06/2026 | 8th | 100/1 | 0% | 30% | +0.30 |
| 09/07/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 75% | -0.04 |
| 04/08/2026 | 4th | 5/4 | 93% | 40% | -0.53 |
| 18/08/2026 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 03/09/2026 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 29% | -0.19 |