1
Berlone
6yo Gelding · 8-7 · Draw 1 · OR 103
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 8 - Allowance · 1m 110y
#3
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▲1
Strength1%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 4.6 /10 (raw 4.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.1
Today:
Class gap: -1.1
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-26 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-02-26 | Gulfstream | ? | 5th | 7th | −2 |
| 2026-01-29 | Gulfstream | ? | 3rd | 5th | −2 |
| 2026-01-01 | Gulfstream | ? | 4th | 6th | −2 |
| 2025-10-02 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2025-09-10 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1180% of fieldRange 1-6 · tight 67/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength86%
Delivery trend +10.2% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 11. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/06/2025 | 4th | 11/4 | 86% | 40% | -0.46 |
| 12/07/2025 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 20/08/2025 | 6th | 4/1 | 79% | 17% | -0.62 |
| 10/09/2025 | 4th | 9/4 | 88% | 50% | -0.38 |
| 02/10/2025 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 86% | +0.15 |
| 01/01/2026 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 63% | -0.03 |
| 29/01/2026 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 75% | +0.04 |
| 26/02/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 50% | +0.24 |
| 26/08/2026 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 80% | +0.64 |