11
Dream Gold
4yo Gelding · 8-12 · Draw 11 · OR 76
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 8 - Allowance · 1m 110y
#8
Rank
Odds
25/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength17%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 3.9 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.5
Today:
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-22 | Fairmount Park | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-08-18 | Fairmount Park | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-08-01 | Fairmount Park | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2025-06-10 | Fairmount Park | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2025-05-27 | Fairmount Park | ? | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2025-05-13 | Fairmount Park | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1120% of fieldRange 7-11 · tight 72/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength10%
Delivery trend -2.3% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 9th of 11. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/08/2024 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 06/10/2024 | 5th | 40/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 29/10/2024 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 13/05/2025 | 4th | 33/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 27/05/2025 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 14% | -0.12 |
| 10/06/2025 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 33% | -0.19 |
| 01/08/2026 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 86% | +0.23 |
| 18/08/2026 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 22/09/2026 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |