2
Magnolia West
4yo Colt · 8-10 · Draw 2 · OR 100
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 8 - Allowance · 1m 110y
#7
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength26%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.6
Today:
Class gap: -0.6
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-13 | Lone Star | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-03-22 | Sam Houston Race Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-02-22 | Fair Grounds | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-02-08 | Sam Houston Race Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-01-08 | Fair Grounds | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-12-12 | Fair Grounds | ? | 1st | 4th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1140% of fieldRange 3-10 · tight 55/100
▬ RUNS TO FORM
Trend▼
Strength46%
Delivery trend -8.0% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 7th of 11. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/01/2025 | 3rd | 33/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 20/03/2025 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 44% | +0.29 |
| 22/11/2025 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 55% | +0.55 |
| 12/12/2025 | 1st | 9/1 | 53% | 100% | +0.47 |
| 08/01/2026 | 1st | 12/1 | 37% | 100% | +0.63 |
| 08/02/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 83% | +0.02 |
| 22/02/2026 | 6th | 11/2 | 71% | 38% | -0.34 |
| 22/03/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 75% | -0.01 |
| 13/06/2026 | 2nd | 15/2 | 61% | 86% | +0.25 |