10
Theodore George
4yo Gelding · 8-10 · Draw 10 · OR 102
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 8 - Allowance · 1m 110y
#5
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 6.2 /10 (raw 5.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.2
Today:
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-19 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-17 | Ellis Park | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-05-24 | Churchill Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-04-25 | Churchill Downs | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-02-08 | Santa Anita | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-01-18 | Santa Anita | ? | 7th | 8th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1150% of fieldRange 2-11 · tight 38/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength25%
Delivery trend -3.1% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 6th of 11. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/11/2025 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 45% | +0.30 |
| 20/11/2025 | 1st | 14/1 | 26% | 100% | +0.74 |
| 18/01/2026 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 40% | +0.24 |
| 08/02/2026 | 5th | 10/3 | 82% | 0% | -0.82 |
| 25/04/2026 | 8th | 20/1 | 0% | 22% | +0.22 |
| 24/05/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |
| 17/07/2026 | 9th | 20/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |
| 19/08/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 83% | +0.07 |