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4

Runaway Deluxe

4yo Gelding · 9-2 · Draw 4 · OR 71

Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 9 - Allowance · 1f 30y

#7

Rank

Odds

15/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#7

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength17%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 6.0 /10 (raw 5.0)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.3
Today:
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 14/11/2024 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 52 · 1f110y Slo 124 · beat its mark14/11/2024 · OR 52 par14/11C8OR 52C8 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 22/04/2025 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 54 · 1f110y Fas 126 · beat its mark22/04/2025 · OR 54 parC8 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 08/05/2025 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 57 · 1f130y Fas 126 · beat its mark08/05/2025 · OR 57 par8/05C8OR 57BHA65 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 01/07/2025 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 65 · 1f180y Gd 126 · below its mark01/07/2025 · OR 65 parC5 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 06/10/2025 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR 67 · 1f30y 126 · beat its mark06/10/2025 · OR 67 par6/10C5OR 67C5 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 13/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR 64 · 1f110y 128 · beat its mark13/05/2026 · OR 64 parC5 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 06/07/2026 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR 67 · 1f80y Fas 128 · beat its mark06/07/2026 · OR 67 par6/07C5OR 67C5 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 13/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 65 · 1f130y Fas 128 · beat its mark13/08/2026 · OR 65 parC5 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 17/09/2026 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR 68 · 1f130y 128 · beat its mark17/09/2026 · OR 68 par17/09C5OR 68projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-17Horseshoe Indianapolis?5th5th0
2026-08-13Horseshoe Indianapolis?2nd2nd0
2026-07-06Horseshoe Indianapolis?7th7th0
2026-05-13Horseshoe Indianapolis?6th6th0
2025-10-06Horseshoe Indianapolis?8th8th0
2025-07-01Horseshoe IndianapolisBHA656th8th−2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today14/111/076/0717/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1358% of fieldRange 6-13 · tight 61/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength26%

Delivery trend -5.8% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 6th of 13. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
14/11/20244th16/116%67%+0.51
22/04/20253rd20/10%78%+0.78
08/05/20251st11/271%100%+0.29
01/07/20256th25/10%29%+0.29
06/10/20258th25/10%22%+0.22
13/05/20266th16/116%44%+0.29
06/07/20267th20/10%25%+0.25
13/08/20262nd14/126%83%+0.57
17/09/20265th5/174%56%-0.18