12
Tea Quila
3yo Filly · 9-0 · Draw 12 · OR 65
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 9 - Allowance · 1f 30y
#4
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
5%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▲2
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type.
Class-adjusted form 6.7 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.0
Today:
Class gap: -2.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-22 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-06 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2025-10-22 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 1st | 5th | −3 |
| 2025-09-25 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 2nd | 6th | −3 |
| 2025-08-17 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 2nd | 6th | −3 |
| 2025-05-05 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 7th | 11th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1383% of fieldRange 2-5 · tight 76/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength77%
Delivery trend +4.8% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 13. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/05/2025 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 25% | -0.12 |
| 17/08/2025 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 89% | +0.01 |
| 25/09/2025 | 2nd | 13/8 | 91% | 89% | -0.03 |
| 22/10/2025 | 1st | 13/8 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 06/07/2026 | 8th | 16/1 | 16% | 13% | -0.03 |
| 22/09/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 38% | +0.22 |