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Hudson

5yo Gelding · 11-8 · OR 99

Huntingdon · Christmas Parties 2026 At Huntingdon Racecourse Novices' Handicap Chase · 2m 7f 129y

#3

Rank

Odds

11/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

2%

Rank

#3

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Fair maiden hurdler for Ellmarie Holden in Ireland. Not been quite at that level over fences for new yard this season, although some of his recent form is working out fine and a speed test at this trip shouldn't outstretch him. One to note back against the novices/down in class.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▼1
Strength40%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 6 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 4.5)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.0
Today: 5
Class gap: +1.0
Higher-class runs: 6
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Wexford 24/07/2025 · Pos 4th of 14 · OR - · 2m150y Gd 15424/07C8BHA103 @ Kilbeggan 22/08/2025 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 103 · 2m2f200y Goo 160 · below its mark22/08/2025 · OR 103 parBHA104 @ Galway 08/09/2025 · Pos 2nd of 20 · OR 104 · 2m160y Goo 158 · below its mark08/09/2025 · OR 104 par8/09104OR 1044 @ Exeter 23/11/2025 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 111 · 2m161y GS 164 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark23/11/2025 · OR 111 par4 @ Market Rasen 16/01/2026 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR 110 · 2m7f16y Goo 168 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark16/01/2026 · OR 110 par16/014OR 1104 @ Uttoxeter 07/07/2026 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR 108 · 2m4f Gd 161 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark07/07/2026 · OR 108 par4 @ Uttoxeter 26/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 105 · 2m4f Gd 153 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark26/07/2026 · OR 105 par26/074OR 1054 @ Worcester 23/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 102 · 2m4f Gd 150 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark23/08/2026 · OR 102 par4 @ Uttoxeter 15/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 100 · 2m4f Gd 158 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark15/09/2026 · OR 100 par15/094OR 100projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 5
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-15Uttoxeter43rd2nd+1
2026-08-23Worcester43rd2nd+1
2026-07-26Uttoxeter44th3rd+1
2026-07-07Uttoxeter48th7th+1
2026-05-16Bangor-on-Dee4+1
2026-01-16Market Rasen47th6th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today24/0723/1126/0715/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 575% of fieldRange 1-4 · tight 57/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength81%

Delivery trend -1.8% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 5.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
24/07/20254th13/266%77%+0.11
22/08/20253rd14/126%78%+0.51
08/09/20252nd9/153%95%+0.42
23/11/20254th10/147%50%+0.03
16/01/20267th22/10%25%+0.25
07/07/20268th17/255%0%-0.55
26/07/20264th14/126%67%+0.40
23/08/20263rd20/10%78%+0.78
15/09/20263rd6/492%71%-0.21