3

Ikigai Star

6yo Gelding · 11-5 · OR 88

Huntingdon · 2026/2027 Annual Badges Now On Sale At Huntingdon Handicap Hurdle · 2m 3f 137y

#1

Rank

Odds

9/2

Win Prob

45%

Place Prob

37%

Rank

#1

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Tumbled in weights since winning 4-runner event over C&D in May last year and failed to build on the promise of his last run when only seventh of 9 in 2½m handicap at Worcester latest.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 4.6)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.2
Today: 5
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Salisbury 29/08/2025 · Pos 8th of 13 · OR 69 · 1m6f44y Goo 141 · beat its mark29/08/2025 · OR 69 par29/085OR 695 @ Market Rasen 27/09/2025 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR 103 · 2m2f140y Gd 168 · below its mark27/09/2025 · OR 103 par4 @ Kempton 19/10/2025 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 101 · 2m5f Goo 159 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark19/10/2025 · OR 101 par19/104OR 1015 @ Huntingdon 18/03/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 98 · 2m3f137y Gd 158 · below its mark18/03/2026 · OR 98 par5 @ Fontwell 08/04/2026 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR 96 · 2m1f162y Goo 164 · below its mark08/04/2026 · OR 96 par8/045OR 966 @ Nottingham 04/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 63 · 1m6f Goo 133 · below its mark04/07/2026 · OR 63 par5 @ Worcester 16/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 91 · 2m7f Goo 161 · below its mark16/07/2026 · OR 91 par16/075OR 915 @ Worcester 19/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 15 · OR 91 · 2m7f Gd 155 · below its mark19/08/2026 · OR 91 par5 @ Worcester 10/09/2026 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR 90 · 2m4f Gd 161 · below its mark10/09/2026 · OR 90 par10/095OR 90projClass-projected finish: 5th of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-10Worcester57th7th0
2026-08-19Worcester55th5th0
2026-07-16Worcester53rd3rd0
2026-07-04Nottingham65th6th−1
2026-05-12Hereford50
2026-04-08Fontwell53rd3rd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today29/0818/0316/0710/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 783% of fieldRange 2-6 · tight 59/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength52%

Delivery trend -3.5% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 7. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
29/08/20258th28/10%42%+0.42
27/09/20255th5/174%56%-0.18
19/10/20255th8/158%20%-0.38
18/03/20263rd10/382%60%-0.22
08/04/20263rd6/168%50%-0.18
04/07/20265th12/137%20%-0.17
16/07/20263rd10/147%60%+0.13
19/08/20265th15/261%71%+0.11
10/09/20267th3/184%25%-0.59