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4

Moostar

4yo Filly · 9-13 · Draw 6 · OR 64

Leicester · Willpower Group Apprentice Handicap · 7f

#9

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#9

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

On a lengthy losing run but has made the frame on several occasions off higher marks this year. Can make presence felt but others preferred for win purposes.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▼1
Strength75%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 6 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 5.1)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C5.0
Today: 6
Class gap: +1.0
Higher-class runs: 6
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Catterick 08/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 63 · 5f212y Goo 136 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark08/04/2026 · OR 63 par8/045OR 636 @ Southwell 23/04/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 65 · 6f16y Std 135 · beat its mark23/04/2026 · OR 65 par5 @ Wolverhampton 05/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 65 · 6f20y Std 132 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark05/05/2026 · OR 65 par5/055OR 655 @ Catterick 21/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 67 · 5f212y Goo 132 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark21/05/2026 · OR 67 par5 @ Goodwood 05/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 68 · 6f Goo 136 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark05/06/2026 · OR 68 par5/065OR 685 @ Chepstow 15/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 67 · 5f16y Gd 135 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark15/06/2026 · OR 67 par5 @ Wolverhampton 06/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR 66 · 6f20y Std 131 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark06/07/2026 · OR 66 par6/075OR 665 @ Wolverhampton 17/07/2026 · Pos 8th of 11 · OR 66 · 7f36y Std 138 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark17/07/2026 · OR 66 par5 @ Southwell 06/08/2026 · Pos 9th of 10 · OR 66 · 6f17y Std 131 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark06/08/2026 · OR 66 par6/085OR 66projClass-projected finish: 9th of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-06Southwell59th8th+1
2026-07-17Wolverhampton58th7th+1
2026-07-06Wolverhampton52nd1st+1
2026-06-15Chepstow56th5th+1
2026-06-05Goodwood53rd2nd+1
2026-05-21Catterick52nd1st+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today8/0421/056/076/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1011% of fieldRange 9-10 · tight 86/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength0%

Delivery trend -5.7% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 9th of 10. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
08/04/20262nd7/491%86%-0.05
23/04/20263rd2/189%60%-0.29
05/05/20262nd13/891%80%-0.11
21/05/20262nd11/271%83%+0.12
05/06/20263rd17/255%78%+0.23
15/06/20266th9/488%17%-0.71
06/07/20262nd3/184%90%+0.06
17/07/20268th6/168%30%-0.38
06/08/20269th10/382%11%-0.71