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7

Searchingtheblues

4yo Filly · 9-9 · Draw 5 · OR 60

Leicester · Willpower Group Apprentice Handicap · 7f

#8

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#8

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Responded well to headgear when second at Ffos Las in August but not built on that and losing run continues to grow.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength59%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 1 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.6 /10 (raw 6.1)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C5.5
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Lingfield 03/04/2026 · Pos 11th of 12 · OR 68 · 7f1y Std 131 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark03/04/2026 · OR 68 par3/044OR 686 @ Southwell 23/04/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 65 · 7f14y Std 135 · beat its mark23/04/2026 · OR 65 par5 @ Wolverhampton 11/05/2026 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR 65 · 1m142y Std 139 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark11/05/2026 · OR 65 par11/055OR 656 @ Lingfield 01/06/2026 · Pos 8th of 11 · OR 64 · 1m1y Std 134 · below its mark01/06/2026 · OR 64 par5 @ Kempton 29/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR 62 · 7f Sta 134 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark29/06/2026 · OR 62 par29/065OR 625 @ Wolverhampton 17/07/2026 · Pos 11th of 11 · OR 61 · 7f36y Std 133 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark17/07/2026 · OR 61 par6 @ Ffos Las 21/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 60 · 7f80y Gd 135 · beat its mark21/08/2026 · OR 60 par21/086OR 605 @ Lingfield 03/09/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 62 · 7f1y Std 132 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark03/09/2026 · OR 62 par6 @ Kempton 23/09/2026 · Pos 9th of 13 · OR 61 · 7f Sta 136 · beat its mark23/09/2026 · OR 61 par23/096OR 61projClass-projected finish: 7th of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-23Kempton69th9th0
2026-09-03Lingfield54th3rd+1
2026-08-21Ffos Las62nd2nd0
2026-07-17Wolverhampton511th10th+1
2026-06-29Kempton53rd2nd+1
2026-06-01Lingfield68th8th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today3/041/0621/0823/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1022% of fieldRange 3-10 · tight 50/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength16%

Delivery trend -3.6% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 10. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
03/04/202611th40/10%9%+0.09
23/04/20263rd18/15%75%+0.70
11/05/20267th15/261%0%-0.61
01/06/20268th8/158%30%-0.28
29/06/20263rd17/255%82%+0.27
17/07/202611th17/255%0%-0.55
21/08/20262nd16/116%83%+0.68
03/09/20264th9/276%67%-0.10
23/09/20269th9/276%33%-0.43